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Author: Mike Celeste Editor: Tony Ponzo April Circulation: 7283

Stat Sheet Week Ending April 21st 2007

ChangesWeeklyYear to Date
Indexes Points Percent PointsPercent
Dow+350.0+2.8%+499.0+4.0%
S&P+31.0+2.1%+66.0+4.7%
NAS+34.0+1.4%+111.0+4.6%

Highlight of this past week--CIT and PPDI--each make over 30% in hours for our day trading Momentum System.
In this Issue--- SplitMaster Basic System---
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Next week we finally have some new plays coming up. Right now there are no Basic plays going, so it will be nice to see activity again.

 Big Dipper System---
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There is one Big Dipper play waiting to close and right now we are at a profit. This stock, BPO, changed its split date, so we are waiting for the official split date to be announced at the meeting on April 26. The split should be shortly thereafter, so team members are to keep their eye on the Big Dipper list.

 Options---
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We continue to see great opportunities in options trading. At the current time, with few splitters active, we see this in our Momentum Plays. Yes, there are losers, but the gainers outweigh those losses. In addition, we keep getting reports from a number of team members that do even better than we do. See the testimonial below. Our research into this area is ongoing and we continue to refine and tweak our criteria to get better results. This is a fascinating study, and our team works long hours, not only for the profit motive, but because the work is so interesting.

 The Momentum Strategy---
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The new quarter is here and the plays are beginning to ramp up. We had 9 potential plays this week and we actually traded 5 of them. Three were winners and two were losers. Again, we had a net gain but I have to say that this was not as good as we expected. We had a number of interferences with the plays we lost on such as an upgrade right in the middle of a PUT play and a conference call in the middle of a CALL play. That conference call did not sound nearly as good as the text news release the night before. Why the officers of the company changed the tone of there quarterly success is beyond us but they did and as a result we had a nice CALL play fall apart on us. It came back towards the end of the day but not enough to get us back to profit. So our win/loss ratio was not what we expected. But, we are once again ahead and that is what is important.

One thing that we will strongly consider in the future is not letting a play go into a conference call again. Most of the time, if the conference call is an hour and half or two into the trading day we are already out with a profit. Friday's play stalled before the conference call. That meant the traders were waiting to hear what the officers of the company had to say. So next time that happens we will get out with whatever we have. That would have saved us a lot on this play. We keep learning more as each week goes by.

Now let me point out, the results of the SplitMaster team's effort are not necessarily the results all the members got. We have quite a few members who have nimble fingers and go into these plays at different times and sometimes play it the opposite way we do. And sometimes will call a play an "up play" with members calling it a "down play" or visa versa and we both wind up winning. That's because these plays that the SplitMaster team picks are big movers - going way up at one point then down and back up and so forth. Some team members have tried applying their trading skills with other stocks, but seem to have far better results when using our Momentum picks. That's not to say all other plays are not worthwhile, but that is just the feedback we get from a number of members. But if a trader develops a good sense of how things are about to move, they can make profits two or three times on one stock and we have members that do just that. This week we have members that are thrilled with their results and we solute them for their trading acumen. See the testimonials below.

When you get a chance, look at the Past Momentum Plays.

Testimonial---
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Once again though if I had been patient with MHK, I could have made thousands with the put.
Keep coming up with these winners guys!! this is a total blast!!...........From Bernie (Friday, April 20)

 Chart Indicator---
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The CI is safely above the break-even line and rolling along in Positive territory---and gives us comfort.

 Stock Split Comments---
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This week we saw improvement in the split announcements. We have a 2-1 splitter for the Basic and two new potentials for the Big Dipper list due during the coming week. We further expect that there will be more announcements coming shortly.

The Economy & Commentary---
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One of the oldest sayings for the market is "Don't fight the trend". The Dow is in an incredible streak that has made many investors nervous--very nervous. It's not a negative thing, but whenever the markets go pretty straight in one direction the nerves get stretched like that rubber band, and we keep waiting for the pendulum to swing the other way. Can you believe this?----The Dow has gone up (into new high ground, too) for 15 out of the last 16 trading sessions. We don't keep track of the Dow daily direction record like we do for the Nas, but any way you look at it, this is tremendously impressive. We'll go along for the ride, not fighting the momentum--even tho we expect a correction soon. The Nas that we keep track of, on the other hand, is doing fine, but this past week it was down 3 straight days, thru Thursday. As that is our magic number for Nas, we saw a big up move on Friday. Actually, on Monday, April 16th, we ended up the 3rd straight day, and Tues.-Thurs were down, continuing this Nas trend that has proven itself over the years.

Numerous earnings have started to come in this past week, and it appears that the results are stronger than expected--hence, good stock markets. Boy, those earnings release days show huge moves in the stock prices shortly after the openings and that's where we make our nice profits on the Momentum Strategy. It is interesting to note that for the first 1/2 hour of trading we see wide price ranges, minute by minute and for the rest of the day, those ranges (hi to low) shorten right up, with spurts periodically thruout the trading day. You chartists can see this on the minute or 2 minute charts. Activity is strong at the opening of trading and then slows down until that conference call, and you can see immediate reactions to what is said during those calls. You can listen to them, too, by going to Yahoo Finance and clicking on the stock involved and then clicking on the news section for that stock, which gets you to the audio of the live call.

Every once in a while I like to point out the numbers game that can be played with the mathematics of statistics. For example the last Retail Sales report came out and showed a 0.1% increase. Then came the final adjusted figure some time later, and it showed a 0.5% increase.

Mathematically, that meant that it was increased 5 times more than the original number--or a 500% increase over the original report. In these days of polling, etc., mathematicians like to see an error stat of 1-2%. What good is it to see a figure come out and then be adjusted 500%? It would seem to us that the most important figure would be the adjusted figure, but that is not the case. The original has more impact and knowing how wrong they can be--time after time, by the way--it would seem to us that it would be more useful to ignore the first figure. But--you do have to be careful in how you analyze reports you see--question them, dissect them, and see what they are really saying. If earnings are doubled, that sounds great, but when you see the earnings doubled from 1 cent to 2 cents, then it is not as impressive. Personally, I love math, and these games are fun to play. And--the analysis can be profitable, too. See what you can do.

 Today's Thought---
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Twenty years from now, you will be more disappointed by the things you did not do than by the things you did do. So, throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover...............Mark Twain.


Mike

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