SplitMaster.com:: Newsletter
Home :: Strategies :: Membership :: Past Results
Author: Mike Celeste Editor: Tony Ponzo June Circulation: 6739

Stat Sheet Week Ending June 13th 2009

ChangesWeeklyYear to Date
Indexes Points Percent PointsPercent
Dow+36.0+0.4%+23.0+0.3%
S&P+6.0+0.6%+37.0+4.1%
NAS+10.0+0.5%+282.0+17.9%

Remember: We now have a discussion group at MySpace. So if you would like to post a comment or two and maybe get into a discussion with other members, check it out. You can respond to a subject that has already been posted or start your own subject. It is a fun thing to see if you can get a real discussion going. So far we have not had many members take advantage so we would like to see the action increase. Check it out by clicking on this link Post comments

Highlight of this past week: The Indicator Strategy sees another winner, making it 33 wins out of 38 for 2009.

In this Issue---
Options---
*******************************
We entered a new write this week. With GS trading at about $145.00, we sold the June 130 Put for .32. Our plan is to buy it back to close for .10. The play was entered yesterday (Friday) and though the stock traded in a fairly tight range, that option is now only worth about .18 due to the dwindling premium. For those that have any such plays open, keep in mind that Friday of next week, the 19th, is Option Expiration day. Therefore on this GS play we are looking for the premium to really start dropping come Monday and barring any major drop in the stock, we should be out on Monday or Tuesday. If you have any options to deal with, think about either closing the position or making sure you are not close to your strike on Friday. As always, we advise that no one enters into these kind of option plays without fully understanding the risks involved and talking to your financial advisor or broker.

Momentum Plays---
************************************************
Another slow week. We only had two plays - one win and one loss - and we have a slight net loss for this week. We might continue at this slower pace until next month too. One, we have very little earnings plays as the earnings season is coming to a close now and will not start back in until the second week in July. Two, with the market staying in a fairly tight range, we are not getting a lot of W plays and certainly the SR SPY plays are hard to come by. And speaking of a tight range, did you watch the market trade yesterday? It stayed within a few points of no change all day long. The computer at the exchange developed a glitch and trading stopped for about 240 stocks. So that kept the Dow at least, almost not moving. Then when the problem was fixed, the market was still basically stagnant. Very strange and we can't remember seeing a computer glitch of this kind in a very long time.

Still, even with our off week and with the one loss, our gain for 2009 stands at over 284% and that beats any other strategy or fund we know about. Learn more

Indicators---
****************************
There were 2 Indicator plays this past week, but we played only one. The 2nd one was a winner, too, but we just missed getting in. The aggressive players stood to make some big dollars when one option went up over $1.00. That would mean that 10 options would have brought a profit of over $1,000 on an investment of about $1,555. We are still in the process of evaluating our criteria to see if we can catch more of these plays instead of passing on winning plays, even if we pay a few cents more for the option. Learn more

b> Feedback---
****************************
We like hearing from new members. Here is what one new member recently emailed to us.

I've only been a subscriber for a few weeks, and paper traded the first week. Just wanted to say that I appreciate your service and plan to be a subscriber for a long time. Thanks again, Mike

The Economy, The Markets & Commentary---
*************************************************

We had another winning week, but just barely. There was practically no volatility the last day and we ended up less than 1% on the major indexes. Looking down the road, we wonder when definite results will be seen on all these government programs that have been flying fast and furious. One major area of concern has been getting some prominent play recently. That is the health care program that is being worked on---to be available to all if it gets passed. What I have not seen or heard is something that has been bothering me. If everyone is going to have access to healthcare, where are we going to get enough doctors, nurses, etc. to handle the workload? There is already a pretty serious shortage of nurses, so that can only get worse. For doctors, we can't just put in an order of "X" number of doctors. There would have to be some major changes to the preparation program to become a doctor. The time required now is long and it is expensive. Maybe we could subsidize medical school applicants, we have been shelling out money to all these other groups. Of course, there would be strings attached, like agreeing to accept set fees for work done. Other considerations could also be suggested.

Consumers are getting more confident about the economy improving. Part of that might be the reports that are coming out that stress the company earnings and expectations from those companies that are doing well. We'll believe more of it when more stock splits are announced, as that is our tell-tale clue. Another reason could be that people are buying into the administration's announcements that all is going well, more jobs are being created, more are being saved, etc. Of course, proving these statements is a bit harder to do, as the statements are very general.

The stock market sure is believing, too. The Nasdaq is up 13 of the last 14 weeks, and 4 in a row---we keep stressing that you don't fight the tape or the momentum--and--the momentum is definitely to the upside. The "experts" keep saying that it is time to take profits off the table and there should be a pullback. Of course, they have been saying that for weeks, now, and it hasn't happened. Every down move is short and quickly overcome and back to the upside. Don't fool yourselves---the markets have been wanting to go up and go up they have. At some point there will be a reversal and good news will be ignored--but we aren't there yet. In the meantime, we will continue to day trade, taking advantage or times when we can make money to the upside and times when there is a short run to the downside. Looking for day trades is sort of a misnomer, as we like to be in and out in less than 1 hour---and sometimes it takes just a few minutes (not often enough, but it does happen).

Another showing of the power of this up move is the fact that gasoline prices have been increasing daily---with those speculators at work again, while there is no shortage of oil. Our representatives continue to sit on their hands and do nothing to curtail this speculation, and it would be so easy to do. Simply raising the margin requirement from a ridiculous 5-7% to 50%, just as it now is for stocks, would undoubtedly do the trick, we think. What shocks us even more is the fact that as oil prices moved up relentlessly, the stock market moved up with those price increases. How can we ignore the fact that this price increase is inflation and very costly. Remember just months ago, last year, when surcharges were put on so many things because of the oil costs? Those costs are increasing again and we are simply ignoring that fact. How can you justify increasing stock prices when costs are so directly affected? Inflation is here and no matter how many times the "experts" say there is no inflation there is no getting around the fact that the cost of living is going up. There was another joke of a report---disposable income went up, they are telling us. That means that either pay is going up or costs are going down, so the result would be that there is more money to spend. That's a joke ! Ask yourself if your cost of living is going up or down. Here in California we just had a 1/2% increase in our sales tax and on July 1 there will be another 1/2% increase---and some cities voted in a 3rd increase of 1/2%. Why the voters would do that is simply unfathomable to me, but they did, and now those cities are cutting all sorts of jobs and services due to the economy,, and their sales tax is going to be even higher, driving consumers into other cities nearby that have a lower sales tax. More utility increases have been announced, too---one said it was going to go up 10% a year for the next 6 years. Yep, no inflation in this neck of the woods. Gee, it is just a coincidence that most of these price increases are in sectors that the government doesn't count. Reality is not a word in the language of our representatives.

There is one way we are fighting back, and that is to provide some good strategies for the stock markets, and so far we have been doing that. We don't have guarantees for the future, but we have no reason to think we are going into a sudden complete failure mode. We will take occasional losses as long as we have more winners than losers, either by percentage or dollar plays. We work hard to try to at least keep up our record, while still trying to make the system better. Our team members have been very nice to us in their comments, and we want everyone to know that we welcome questions, suggestions or general statements of outlooks, etc. If you haven't checked our site lately, go ahead--Past Results for all the different strategies are right there, free to check out-- SplitMaster Past Results and we freely admit we have losers scattered in there (and there will be more, too), but the net is pretty doggone impressive, we think. Stay tuned.................

Today's Thought---
*****************
The trouble with practical jokes is that very often they get elected....... Will Rogers


Mike

Published by Splitmaster.com, LLC.
P.O. Box 960 San Dimas CA 91773
Copyright © 2006 All Rights Reserved.
Privacy Policy

To unsubscribe from our newsletter or edit your delivery address go to our Newsletter Page. To edit membership information login to the Splitmaster.com members page. For inquiries regarding this or any other Splitmaster.com Information Delivery System publication contact us at staff@splitmaster.com.