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Author: Mike Celeste Editor: Tony Ponzo August Circulation: 6734

Stat Sheet Week Ending August 29th 2009

ChangesWeeklyYear to Date
Indexes Points Percent PointsPercent
Dow+75.0+0.8%+805.0+9.2%
S&P+4.0+0.4%+126.0+14.0%
NAS+8.0+0.4%+452.0+28.7%

Highlight of this past week: We had two wins in the SPY this week. The Indicators are still sitting on an 81% win rate and the Momentum Strategy is showing a year to date profit of over 328%.

In this Issue---
Options---
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The back and forth movement of the market this week enabled us to buy back some Calls we had written the week before. That means that we have made our "extra dividend" for the Sept. options and can look for more opportunities. We can now look at a higher strike price, and even tho the option price is low, it makes it more conservative and if we do it, the goal is to just add a few more dollars to our gain.

Momentum Plays---
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We had a disappointing week with two wins and two losses but unfortunately the losses were bigger than the profits. We had two earnings plays that just did not work out this week. Everything was set to go in the direction we expected but for whatever reason both just petered out and drifted in the wrong direction. We also had an earnings play that did very well but --- we missed the entry point. So it was a bit frustrating this week but the good news is, a number of members made that play we missed and did very well. It is always very gratifying to see members get into winning plays even when we at SplitMaster miss it. The other good news is even with this disappointing week the Momentum Strategy still sits on a 328% profit year to date and we feel very good about that.

Indicators---
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With this extremely strong market we were able to make a good decision not to make our Indicator play on Monday. The result would not have been favorable, so again we see that not losing is good. Winning is better, but not losing is definitely better than a loss.

Feedback---
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We again are getting feedback that many of our members who have been with us for awhile and understand the process of our strategies are able to do better than us at times. Our hesitancy in our efforts to get the best maximum price has not stopped them from making plays based on the signals. We are very happy to hear from them about their successes.

The Economy, The Markets & Commentary---
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It seemed that this past week we detected a buildup in interest in the massive debt that we are compiling with all these bailouts, etc. You have to go back to World War II to have much to compare it to, relative to our national product. Back then there was a pent-up demand for everything after the war. The consumer wanted all those things denied during rationing at wartime. Of course there was a labor problem, too, as all the returning veterans needed jobs. Most of the women that had jumped into the void when the men went to war came back to the home front and concentrated on raising the kids. That left the jobs open for the returning vets---but our war production was practically stopped, so we had to build on making cars, stoves, refrigerators, etc., instead of tanks, guns, planes, etc. The point is, there was a trade-off of both product and employment. This time we don't have those factors. It turned my stomach this week to hear commentators in the media, along with the politicians saying that we can't forget that government and the people are the same thing in a democracy. Baloney !!! Try and get something done from a grass roots level, or try to see your senator. Let me know if you have been able to make an appointment to see yours--I Know I haven't been able to. It takes a strong subject to spur the people to rise up and really threaten the politicians.

We have done it with the healthcare issue, but the battle isn't over yet. There are so many words being slung back and forth that we don't know what is really even being proposed. What I continue to NOT hear is how the leading countries that do have universal health care, France and Italy (being #1 and #2) manage to do it so that they are so highly rated--and far above the US. To hear that the US is the only industrial nation that does not have universal health care makes me wonder why others can do it and be rated better than us???? Their people live longer, their infant mortality is better than ours---how come? Also, what I do not hear is---Where is there help for the people that do buy their own health insurance? The rates are extremely high and definitely a burden to a family. Again, how do the other leading countries do it? A quick mention of the death of Ted Kennedy. In watching the shows on his history, it was very interesting to see that it was very early on in his very long career that he was strongly pushing for universal health care. No, it was not something new to him, but with all his power in the Senate, he was not able to get it through---and it is still questionable that it will happen any time soon. It seems more and more members of Congress are pushing to have patience with this and not ram it down our throats before we all have a chance to digest the proposals--and especially the final version.

Oil continues to stay high---we are still not doing our job and protesting enough. I guess the emphasis is on healthcare and we just have to put up with the speculators controlling the market--unnecessarily, I might add.

The markets continue to fight back every time there is a dip, so it means that buying on the dip is still profitable. When it will end, I don't know, but it will at some point. The Dow was up 8 straight days before pulling back a little on Friday. We at SplitMaster are doing our best to take advantage of these moves, by making profits in both an up and down market moves.

Economic reports do seem to be improving, altho there are still lots of new unemployment filings--just not at the high levels of earlier in the year. More and more companies are raising their yearly estimates and that helps to spur more market buying. Are we overbought? Personally, I think so, but I thought so many Dow points ago--and have early on taken the position that it is impossible to give the time of the top of the market.

On the ground level, we still are hearing how bad it is out there when looking for a job. The "experts" keep saying that the consumer has to open up his pocketbook and start buying, and that will create jobs, etc. We, on the other hand, keep saying that it is pretty hard to open up your pocketbook and spend when your pocketbook is empty. Hey, the consumer would love to spend---he is just not able to do it. Either he has maxed out the credit cards or a job threat is facing the workers every day.

Stay tuned..........

Today's Thought---
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You don't have to win every argument. Agree to disagree...........

Mike

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